{
  "_metadata": {
    "schema_version": "0.1.0",
    "generated_at": "2026-05-04T20:48Z",
    "next_refresh_target": "2026-05-11T20:48Z",
    "refresh_cadence": "weekly",
    "policy": "Forecasts curados manualmente por Mesa Futuros desde fuentes públicas. Cifras citadas con fuente + fecha; ningún forecast es opinión Futuros sin cita primaria.",
    "license": "CC BY 4.0 (curaduría); fuentes primarias retienen su licencia individual"
  },
  "themes": [
    {
      "id": "agi-year",
      "label": "Año esperado AGI / sistemas transformadores",
      "description": "¿Cuándo se espera un sistema con capacidades transformadoras de propósito general (definición varía por fuente)?",
      "forecasts": [
        { "source": "Metaculus · weak AGI", "metric": "median P50", "value": "2031", "p10_p90": "2027 — 2046", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/", "as_of": "2026-04-15", "n_forecasters": "~3,800", "trend_30d": "−4mo (acelerando)", "tag": "verified" },
        { "source": "Metaculus · strong AGI", "metric": "median P50", "value": "2034", "p10_p90": "2029 — 2059", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/", "as_of": "2026-04-15", "n_forecasters": "~2,400", "trend_30d": "−2mo", "tag": "verified" },
        { "source": "Manifold · AGI by 2030", "metric": "implied probability", "value": "37%", "p10_p90": "—", "url": "https://manifold.markets/category/ai", "as_of": "2026-04-22", "n_forecasters": "~600 traders", "trend_30d": "+5pp", "tag": "verified" },
        { "source": "Cotra · biological anchors (updated)", "metric": "median TAI", "value": "2031", "p10_p90": "2026 — 2050", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/forecasting-transformative-ai/", "as_of": "2025-12", "n_forecasters": "n/a (model-based)", "trend_30d": "—", "tag": "verified" },
        { "source": "Davidson · takeoff modeling", "metric": "median TAI", "value": "2027", "p10_p90": "2025 — 2034", "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/davidson-modeling-takeoff/", "as_of": "2025-09", "n_forecasters": "n/a (model-based)", "trend_30d": "—", "tag": "verified" },
        { "source": "AI Impacts · expert survey 2025", "metric": "median HLMI", "value": "2042", "p10_p90": "2030 — 2089", "url": "https://aiimpacts.org/2025-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/", "as_of": "2025-08", "n_forecasters": "~2,778 NeurIPS/ICML authors", "trend_30d": "—", "tag": "verified" },
        { "source": "Epoch AI · staff aggregate", "metric": "median compute-frontier proxy", "value": "2030", "p10_p90": "2028 — 2035", "url": "https://epochai.org/", "as_of": "2026-03", "n_forecasters": "Epoch staff (~12)", "trend_30d": "—", "tag": "verify" }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "agi-capability",
      "label": "Capacidad concreta · benchmarks operacionalizables",
      "description": "Métricas falsificables con valor numérico, no años de mediana.",
      "forecasts": [
        { "source": "METR · Time Horizon", "metric": "task length at 50% success", "value": "13.0 h", "p10_p90": "—", "url": "https://metr.org/", "as_of": "2026-04", "n_forecasters": "n/a (measurement)", "trend_30d": "+1.2h", "tag": "verified", "futuros_threshold": "≥ 48 h triggers AGI-year shift in Stream 8" },
        { "source": "Epoch · SWE-Bench Verified", "metric": "frontier model best score", "value": "78%", "p10_p90": "—", "url": "https://epochai.org/data/notable-ai-models", "as_of": "2026-04", "n_forecasters": "n/a (measurement)", "trend_30d": "+3pp", "tag": "verified", "futuros_threshold": "≥ 85% triggers AGI-year shift in Stream 8" },
        { "source": "Apollo · deception evals", "metric": "frontier model deception score", "value": "Llama-4 70B: low; Claude 4.7: low; GPT-5: medium", "p10_p90": "—", "url": "https://www.apolloresearch.ai/", "as_of": "2026-03", "n_forecasters": "n/a (measurement)", "trend_30d": "elevated", "tag": "verify", "futuros_threshold": "any 'high' triggers RSP/PF/FSF override review" }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "anchor-0",
      "label": "Anchor 0 Paraguay · timeline & milestones",
      "description": "Probabilidades específicas a Anchor 0 — evento por evento.",
      "forecasts": [
        { "source": "Mesa Futuros · curated estimate", "metric": "P(LOI hyperscaler ≥ 0.3 GW · 2027)", "value": "60–75%", "p10_p90": "—", "url": "/paraguay-anchor", "as_of": "2026-05-04", "n_forecasters": "Mesa Futuros · 4 reviewers", "trend_30d": "stable", "tag": "assumption" },
        { "source": "Mesa Futuros · curated estimate", "metric": "P(Compacto Soberano signed · 2027)", "value": "45–60%", "p10_p90": "—", "url": "/compacto-soberano", "as_of": "2026-05-04", "n_forecasters": "Mesa Futuros", "trend_30d": "stable", "tag": "assumption" },
        { "source": "Mesa Futuros · curated estimate", "metric": "P(Anexo C signed Q1 2027)", "value": "20–35%", "p10_p90": "—", "url": "/paraguay-anchor", "as_of": "2026-05-04", "n_forecasters": "Mesa Futuros", "trend_30d": "+5pp post-Itamaraty signal", "tag": "assumption" }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "compute-supply",
      "label": "Cómputo & supply-side · ventana LATAM",
      "description": "¿Qué tan rápido se cierra la ventana LATAM como host renovable global?",
      "forecasts": [
        { "source": "IEA · global DC electricity 2030", "metric": "TWh/yr forecast", "value": "945 TWh", "p10_p90": "650 — 1,400 TWh", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026", "as_of": "2026-01", "n_forecasters": "n/a (model)", "trend_30d": "—", "tag": "verified" },
        { "source": "SemiAnalysis · LATAM DC capacity", "metric": "GW operational by 2030", "value": "8 GW", "p10_p90": "5 — 14 GW", "url": "https://www.semianalysis.com/", "as_of": "2026-03", "n_forecasters": "SemiAnalysis (paid)", "trend_30d": "—", "tag": "verify" },
        { "source": "Telegeography · LATAM cable capacity", "metric": "Tbps lit by 2027", "value": "182 Tbps", "p10_p90": "—", "url": "https://www2.telegeography.com/", "as_of": "2026-02", "n_forecasters": "n/a (industry data)", "trend_30d": "+8 Tbps", "tag": "verified" },
        { "source": "USGS · litio reserves (Argentina + Chile + Bolivia)", "metric": "% world reserves", "value": "59%", "p10_p90": "—", "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/", "as_of": "2026-01", "n_forecasters": "n/a (geological data)", "trend_30d": "—", "tag": "verified" }
      ]
    }
  ]
}